Oil Prices to Stay High for Days as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Major Supplier

Global oil prices are expected to remain high for days as the Middle East conflicts are feared to disrupt the major oil supplier, just after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reviewed the current market fundamentals.

According to a Reuters report, analysts have projected that oil prices would remain elevated over the coming days as the Middle East conflict escalated, particularly affecting flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for more than 20% of global oil.

“Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated over the coming days with conflict escalating in the Middle East, as they assess the impact on supplies, especially flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for more than 20% of global oil,” they noted.

Middle East Conflict Sends Oil Prices Soaring

Reportedly, crude futures surged more than 8% on Monday to multi-month highs in the first trading day after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran and killed its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with Tehran striking back against Israel and at least seven other countries.

A Wood Mackenzie analyst said oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if tanker flows through the Strait aren’t quickly restored.

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“The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only are current exports through the Strait halted, but OPEC+ additional volumes and ultimately most of OPEC’s spare capacity – typically a key lever for balancing the global oil market – are inaccessible while the waterway remains closed,” WoodMac analysts said in a note.

OPEC+ Agrees to Gradual Production Adjustment Effective April

On 1 March 2026, the eight OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, held a virtual meeting to review global oil market conditions and outlook.

The OPEC report notes that during the meeting, officials noted a steady global economic trajectory and low inventories.

Further, countries decided to resume the gradual unwinding of 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary production adjustments first announced in April 2023.

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“The eight participating countries decided to resume the unwinding of the 1.65 million barrels per day of additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023 and agreed on a production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day. This adjustment will be implemented in April 2026,” the OPEC statement noted.

They also agreed to an additional production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day, effective in April 2026.

The group said the 1.65 million barrels per day could be partially or fully restored, depending on market developments.

Additionally, they confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024.

‘The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The eight countries will meet on 5 April 2026,” they outlined.

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