Global oil prices have dropped by nearly 15 per cent in a week, a development that could influence Kenya’s next fuel price review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) scheduled for November 14, 2026.
In its monetary and financial developments report released on Friday, November 6, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) said Murban crude oil prices declined to USD 94.04 (KSh 12,216.74) per barrel on November 5, down from USD 110.46 (KSh 14,349.86) per barrel recorded on October 29.
The latest figures represent a drop of USD 16.42 (KSh 2,133.12) per barrel, equivalent to 14.86 per cent within seven days.
The decline comes ahead of EPRA’s next monthly announcement on petroleum prices, which will set the pump prices for motorists and other fuel consumers across the country.
Global Oil Prices Drop 14.86% Ahead of EPRA Fuel Price Review
The CBK attributed the decline in oil prices to developments following the US midterm elections and expectations of reduced risks of disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East.
“Murban crude oil prices declined to USD 94.04 per barrel on November 5, from USD 110.46 per barrel on October 29, after the U.S. mid-term elections and expectations of a lower risk of disruption to oil supply from the Middle East,” CBK said.
In the global energy market, Brent crude futures settled at approximately $97.55 per barrel (KSh 12,672.72) on Friday, November 6, following initial fluctuations. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at around $89.79 per barrel (KSh 11,664.62).
Reuters reported that Brent crude was heading for a weekly decline of approximately 17 per cent, marking its steepest drop since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. WTI was also on course for a weekly decline of more than 13 per cent.
The easing concerns over supply disruptions came as global financial market conditions improved during the week ending November 5.
Also Read: Oil Tankers Expected at Kenyan Ports in Next 14 Days as Fuel Supply Concerns Persist
Why Global Oil Price Drops May Not Immediately Lower Kenya’s Pump Prices
However, the movement in international crude oil prices does not automatically translate into an immediate reduction in pump prices in Kenya.
Kenya imports refined petroleum products, so the cost of buying petrol, diesel, and kerosene from international suppliers is a key factor in setting local prices.
EPRA considers several factors when calculating local petroleum prices, including the average landed cost of imported petroleum products, exchange rates, distribution costs, taxes and applicable regulatory charges.
Other components include freight, insurance, port handling, storage, financing costs, transportation, approved margins and applicable taxes.
Also Read: Why Kenyans Still Pay More at the Pump When Global Oil Prices Fall
The Kenya shilling remained stable against the US dollar during the review period, exchanging at KSh 129.96 on November 5, unchanged from October 29.
The stable exchange rate may also affect the cost of importing petroleum products, since international oil purchases are denominated in foreign currencies.
Meanwhile, the CBK report showed that the US Dollar Index weakened by 0.48 per cent against major international currencies during the week.
Gold prices moved in the opposite direction, rising to USD 4,087.70 per ounce on November 5 from USD 4,020.40 recorded on October 29.
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