Kenya is headed into a period of increased weather uncertainty as attention turns to the possibility of an El Niño-influenced rainfall season.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has forecasted thunderstorms in 19 counties between October 31 and November 4, 2026, ahead of the El Niño showers.
KMSA warned of light to moderate rainfall, with some areas expected to experience afternoon thunderstorms accompanied by lightning in a five-day outlook.
In its October 29 forecast, the service said rainfall would affect several parts of the country, particularly the Western, Nyanza, and Rift Valley regions, while other counties would see sunny intervals.
According to KMSA, counties expected to experience thunderstorms include West Pokot, Samburu, Uasin Gishu, Nandi, Baringo, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, and Bomet in the Rift Valley and surrounding regions.
Others include Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, and Busia in Western Kenya, and Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, and Nyamira in the Nyanza region.
Earlier, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecast an unusually strong El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific expected to rise to about 3.8°C above average.
In a Global Seasonal Climate Update on October 20, 2026, WMO noted that the El Niño would intensify between November 2026 and January 2027.
“For the November 2026–January 2027 (NDJ 2026–27) season, multi-model ensemble forecasts indicate a further intensification toward stronger El Niño conditions. The seasonal average Niño 3.4 SST ensemble mean anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.8°C during NDJ 2026–27, with the warming trend peaking around December 2026,” part of the report read.
Nairobi and Surrounding Counties
In Nairobi, the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority forecasts sunny intervals in the morning, followed by moderate showers on October 31.
Light showers are expected on November 1, while November 2 is expected to have sunny intervals.
Further light showers are forecast for the afternoons of November 3 and 4.
Daytime temperatures in Nairobi are expected to range between 29°C and 30°C, while nighttime minimum temperatures will range between 14°C and 16°C.
Neighboring Kiambu County is also expected to see afternoon showers on October 31 and November 1-4, with maximum temperatures between 26°C and 28°C.
In Kajiado, moderate showers are expected on October 31, followed by light showers on November 1, 3 and 4.
Also Read: El Niño Kicks Off: Possible Areas to Experience Heavy Rainfall Within 24 Hours
Western and Nyanza Regions
The Western and Nyanza regions are among the areas expected to experience thunderstorms during the forecast period.
Nakuru is forecast to receive moderate showers accompanied by thunder and lightning on October 31, followed by light showers with thunderstorms on November 1 and 2.
Sunny intervals are expected on November 3 before thunderstorms return on November 4.
In Kisumu, moderate showers with thunderstorms are expected on October 31, while light showers accompanied by thunder and lightning are forecast for November 1.
Between November 2 and 4, the region is expected to have sunny intervals in the afternoon.
Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, and Busia are also expected to experience afternoon showers with thunderstorms on October 31.
Other Counties to Experience Rainfall
Beyond the areas expecting thunderstorms, the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has forecast rainfall in several other parts of the country ahead of the El Niño rains.
In the coastal region, Mombasa is expected to receive light showers on October 31 and November 4, while Kwale is forecast to experience moderate morning showers on October 31, followed by light showers on November 1, 3 and 4.
Kilifi is also expected to receive light showers on October 31, November 1, 3 and 4.
Tana River is forecast to receive afternoon showers on October 31, November 3 and 4, while Lamu is expected to experience light morning showers on October 31 and November 4.
Parts of Eastern Kenya, including Meru, Tharaka-Nithi and Embu, are expected to receive showers at different times during the five-day forecast period.
In addition, Kitui, Machakos and Makueni are also forecast to experience rainfall, with some areas expected to receive moderate showers on October 31 before lighter showers follow on subsequent dates.
Further rainfall is expected in Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Murang’a, with showers forecast on several afternoons between October 31 and November 4.
Laikipia and Nyandarua are also expected to receive light showers during the period.
Hot Conditions Expected in Northern Kenya Ahead of El Niño Rains
Northern and northeastern parts of the country will experience high daytime temperatures, with Turkana expected to record the highest.
Maximum temperatures in Turkana are forecast to range between 37°C and 39°C, with the highest reading expected on November 3.
Mandera could record temperatures up to 37°C, while Wajir and Garissa are also expected to see daytime highs between 35°C and 37°C.
Marsabit is forecast to record maximum temperatures of 25°C to 27°C, while Isiolo could experience highs of 34°C to 35°C.
Also Read: Anxious Wait as WMO Issues New El Niño Forecast Extending Into 2027
Cooler Nights in Parts of Central Kenya
In contrast to the hot conditions expected in northern Kenya, some counties in the Central Highlands and Rift Valley are forecast to experience cooler nights.
Nyandarua is expected to record minimum temperatures as low as 7°C on November 1, while Laikipia could experience nighttime temperatures dropping to 11°C.
Kericho is also forecast to record a minimum of 11°C on November 4.
Sunny Intervals and Partly Cloudy Nights
Turkana, Wajir, Mandera, and Marsabit are expected to see sunny intervals in both mornings and afternoons throughout the forecast period.
However, parts of Eastern Kenya and the Coast may experience light showers at night.
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