The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted a 60 per cent possibility of La Niña conditions towards the end of the year.
According to the Secretary General of the WMO Celeste Saulo, the effects may be felt from October 2024 to February 2025. During this period, the chances of El Niño redeveloping are extremely low.
La Niña has the opposite effects of El Niño. It is characterized by a significant cooling of ocean surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Its effects can include strong winds, rainfall and atmospheric pressure.
However, the effects of each La Niña event vary depending on its intensity, duration, time of year it develops, and the interaction with other climate drivers.
“Predictions for large-scale rainfall patterns partially align with the typical impacts observed during the early stage of La Niña conditions, including above-normal rainfall in far northern South America, Central America, the Caribbean, northern Greater Horn of Africa and the Sahel, parts of southeast Asia and central Maritime Continent,” the WMO stated.
Also Read: World Met Department Predicts El Nino & Extreme Temperatures
World Met Explains the Occurrence of La Niña
At the same time, WMO explained that the extreme climate events were human induced, increasing global temperatures.
Consequently, the impact affected seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns across the world.
The World Met also noted that the past nine years have been the warmest on record even with the cooling influence of a multi-year La Niña from 2020 to early 2023.
“Since June 2023 we have seen an extended streak of exceptional global land and sea surface temperature. Even if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” said Celeste Saulo.
“The 2023-24 El Niño event started emerging in June 2023 and peaked in November 2023 – January 2024 as one of the five strongest on record before dissipating – although some impacts continued.”
However, after the El Niño event, neutral weather conditions have been experienced with the isolation of intense heat and devastating rainfall in some parts of the world.
“This is why the Early Warnings for All initiative remains WMO’s top priority. Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña and the associated impacts on the climate patterns globally are an important tool to inform early warnings and early action,” added Celeste Saulo.
Also Read: Weatherman Warns of Above Normal Rains in Kenya
Kenya Met Announces Above Normal Rains
Earlier, while addressing the press on Wednesday, August 21, Kenya Meteorological Department Director David Gikungu announced that different parts of the country could experience above normal rainfall.
He noted that the weather pattern is predicted to occur during the October to December season.
The latest Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU) indicates that widespread above-normal sea-surface temperatures are expected to persist in all ocean basins apart from the near-equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result, above-normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas.
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