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Kenya’s Opposition Wants to Split up the Country – but Secession Calls Seldom Succeed

by John Mukum Mbaku
June 9, 2023
Reading Time: 8 mins read
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Kenya’s opposition politicians recently called for secession – which is the withdrawal of territory and sovereignty from part of an existing state to create a new state. Led by Raila Odinga, who received 48.8% of the presidential vote in Kenya’s 2022 election, the politicians want the country split into two republics to create a new state for Kenyans unhappy with President William Ruto’s leadership.

Calls for secession are not a new political phenomenon in Kenya.

Even before the territory gained independence from Britain in 1963, some Kenyan Somalis had sought to secede and join neighboring Somalia. And the Mombasa Republican Council, established in the 1990s, has called for an independent state for the coastal people, citing their marginalization.

Opposition groups also made secession calls after Kenya’s 2007-08 post-election violence. These calls were repeated in the run-up to the elections in 2013. Then in 2017, a bill tabled in parliament proposed creating a People’s Republic of Kenya from 40 of the country’s current 47 counties. Geographically, this new republic would retain nearly 87% of Kenya’s population and 97% of the land mass, leaving behind a nation that would not be economically viable.


Also Read: Kenya’s Political Elites Switch Parties with Every Election – How this Fuels Violence


Secessionist movements around the world usually result from the belief by some groups within a region or state that they aren’t able to exercise their right to self-determination. This is their right to determine “their own future, political status and independence”, according to the UN.

Self-determination can be external or internal: full independence from other states, or access to political and social rights within a state. The two kinds are related. When governments fail to guarantee internal self-determination, affected groups may seek secession, or external self-determination.

The politicians calling for secession in Kenya argue that some Kenyans have been systematically deprived of the right to participate in the country’s government and economy.

Aggrieved groups may seek to form their own independent sovereign state, like the Biafrans of Nigeria did between 1967 and 1970. Or they may seek to join another independent state, as the Somalis of Kenya did in the 1960s.

In my view as a legal scholar and economist who has studied the political economy in Africa for close to two decades, any group in Kenya that unilaterally declares independence is unlikely to find support on the continent. Additionally, Kenyan politicians have yet to prove that aggrieved groups have been systematically denied the right to participate in the government and the economy in meaningful ways.

Colonial borders

The African Union has been against secession since it was first established as the Organization of African Unity in 1963.

The organization refused to intervene in the Nigerian civil war sparked by the Biafran secession of 1967, calling it an internal affair. And in Mali, in response to the declaration of the independent state of Azawad by northern Tuaregs in 2012, the union rejected this, terming it “null and of no value whatsoever”.

The union’s chairperson at the time, Jean Ping, emphasized the

fundamental principle of the intangibility of borders inherited by African countries at their accession to independence.

This echoes Article 4(b) of the Constitutive Act of the African Union. It states that the continental organization shall respect the borders that existed at independence. The act also calls on the union to defend the territorial integrity of its member states. This presents it with a dilemma when it comes to addressing secessionist movements.

The answer to this dilemma is for the African Union to establish a legal mechanism for recognizing legitimate struggles for secession. These include struggles that offer a remedy for grave and systematic injustices.

This was seen in South Sudan in 2011. The South Sudanese people based their push to secede on the argument that since independence in 1956, Khartoum had systematically marginalized them and denied them the right to pursue their political, economic and social development within a united Sudan.


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At the end of a brutal civil war (1985 to 2005), the warring parties signed a peace agreement. It granted southerners the option to pursue self-determination. Sudan approved of South Sudan’s independence push.

National governments can also establish constitutional processes that allow aggrieved groups to peacefully and constitutionally petition for separation. This has been done in the UK and Canada. Such constitutional mechanisms can encourage aggrieved groups to seek internal instead of external self-determination.

While secession can involve the use of force – as it did in Biafra and South Sudan – it can also be achieved through peaceful means. Scotland’s ongoing bid to become independent of Britain is a case in point.

Kenya’s obstacles

Secession by Kenya’s aggrieved groups or peoples is unlikely to succeed as it faces four major obstacles.

First, as is clear from the African Union’s Constitutive Act, any move to interfere with Kenya’s territorial integrity is unlikely to be supported by the organization.

Second, it’s not likely that the post-secession state will gain the approval of the UN Security Council and then that of two-thirds of the UN General Assembly to be admitted to the UN. This is largely because the secessionists have not yet made a credible case for splitting Kenya into two states.

Third, secession as envisioned by Kenya’s opposition will create two states, one of which is not likely to be economically viable. This could lead to a civil war.

Fourth, the 2010 constitution devolved power from the central government in Nairobi in favor of local communities in 47 regions. This significantly improved the ability of various groups to govern themselves and participate in their own economic, social and cultural development.

Politicians and aggrieved groups need to exercise the right to self-determination through this decentralized governance process. Through it, they can help create a participatory, inclusive and development-oriented government and economy in a united Kenya.The Conversation

John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Tags: African UnionColonialismElectionsIndependenceKenyaOppositionSecessionSouth SudanTribalismUnited Nations
John Mukum Mbaku

John Mukum Mbaku

John Mukum Mbaku is a Brady Presidential Distinguished professor of economics and John S. Hinckley Fellow at Weber State University. He is also a nonresident senior fellow at The Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., and an attorney and counselor at law, licensed to practice in the Supreme Court of the State of Utah, the U.S. District Court for the District of Utah, and the U.S. Supreme Court. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Georgia and his JD in law and graduate certificate in natural resources and environmental law from the S. J. Quinney College of Law at the University of Utah. He is a resource person for the Kenya-based African Economic Research Consortium. Professor Mbaku also holds a B.S. (Chemistry) from Berry College (Mount. Berry, Georgia), a B.A. (French Language and Literature) from Weber State University (Ogden, Utah), and an International MBA (IMBA) from the University of South Carolina. His research interests are in public choice, constitutional political economy, sustainable development, law and development, international human rights, intellectual property, rights of indigenous groups, women and children, trade integration and institutional reforms in Africa. Mbaku is the author of Corruption in Africa: Causes, Consequences, and Cleanups (Lexington Books, 2010) and (with Mwangi S. Kimenyi) of Governing the Nile River Basin: The Search for a New Legal Regime (The Brookings Institution Press, 2015) and Protecting Minority Rights in African Countries: A Constitutional Political Economy Approach (Edward Elgar, 2018). On May 22, 2017, John Mukum Mbaku, was admitted and qualified as an Attorney and Counsellor of the Supreme Court of the United States. At Weber State University, John Mukum Mbaku teaches courses in principles of economics, intermediate microeconomics, international trade, business calculus, and economic development. He also works with international students and helps them adjust to college life in the United States. Professor Mbaku also engages with community groups and helps them understand issues such as globalization, outsourcing, and immigration and how they affect economic activities in the United States. Professor Mbaku also visits local schools to talk to students about the U.S. constitution, constitutionalism and the rule of law in the United States and other countries. He is a consultant to several domestic and international news organizations, as well as multilateral organizations (e.g., the African Development Bank), on governance issues in Africa and has appeared on several domestic and international news programs to discuss elections, corruption, sustainable management of natural resources, including water, and various governance-related issues in Africa.

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