A new opinion poll has placed President William Ruto ahead of his rivals in a hypothetical presidential contest but shows that no candidate would secure the 50 percent plus one vote needed to win outright.
The survey, conducted by Stats Kenya in March 2026 through telephone interviews, paints a picture of a highly competitive political field, with a large number of voters still undecided and the possibility of a runoff emerging as the most likely outcome.
Ruto Leads but Falls Short of Majority
According to the poll results, William Ruto would attract 23.41 percent of the vote if elections were held today.
This gives him a clear lead over all other candidates but still leaves him far below the constitutional threshold required to avoid a second round.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i comes in second with 12.25 percent, followed by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 8.17 percent.
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ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna is placed fourth with 7.44 percent.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua trails with 3.99 percent, while David Maraga, Oburu Odinga and Okiya Omtata register 1.45 percent, 1 percent and 0.36 percent, respectively.
The poll also highlights a significant number of respondents who have not yet made a firm decision.
Those who said they would not vote for any of the listed candidates make up 5.63 percent, while 7.35 percent declined to state a preference.
A further 28.95 percent said they did not know or were undecided, making this the largest single category.
With no candidate approaching the majority mark, the data points to a likely second-round contest if such voting patterns were replicated in an actual election.
High levels of undecided voters can significantly shift outcomes once campaigns intensify.
The poll also raises the possibility that coalition politics could play a decisive role.
Combined support among several opposition figures could challenge the frontrunner if alliances are formed before an election.
At the same time, the data highlights the challenges facing all contenders in expanding their support base.
With nearly a third of voters still undecided, campaigns are likely to focus heavily on persuasion, outreach and building trust among this crucial group.
Stats Kenya said the survey involved 1,102 respondents and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.95 percentage points.
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Like all opinion polls, the findings represent a snapshot of public sentiment at a specific moment and may change over time.
Ruto Against the United Opposition
The poll also tested a united opposition scenario, offering a clearer picture of how alliances could affect the race.
In this setup, Fred Matiang’i, Kalonzo Musyoka and Rigathi Gachagua are combined into a single ticket.
The three candidates jointly attract 24.41 percent of the vote, slightly higher than President William Ruto’s 23.41 percent as a standalone candidate.
This is the only scenario in the survey where Ruto is not in the lead, indicating that opposition unity could shift the balance of the race.
Individually, the same candidates poll far lower, with Matiang’i at 12.25 percent, Kalonzo at 8.17 percent and Gachagua at 3.99 percent.
Their combined showing highlights how split support across multiple candidates weakens their individual chances.
The findings suggest that the opposition’s biggest challenge remains consolidation rather than voter support.
Without a unified ticket, the vote remains divided, allowing Ruto to maintain an advantage despite falling short of the majority threshold.
