Kenya is entering the October–December short-rains season with several counties forecast to receive light to moderate rainfall between October 2 and 6, 2026, ahead of the El Niño season.
According to the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, showers are projected across the Coast, eastern Kenya, and Central Kenya, parts of the Rift Valley, western Kenya, and Nyanza.
In a weather forecast issued on September 30, significant temperature differences are expected across the country.
Daytime highs during the week will reach 38°C in Turkana, while parts of Central Kenya are expected to record minimum temperatures as low as 6°C.
KMSA had earlier noted that the 2026 El Niño event was intensifying across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific.
It reported a Niño 3.4 seasonal mean of +1.51°C for May–July 2026, a July monthly value of +2.03°C, and a weekly value of +2.7°C centered on August 12.
“The 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The traditional Niño 3.4 index shows a clear and sustained increase, with the most recent seasonal mean reaching +1.51 °C during May–July 2026,” KMSA stated.
Nairobi Weather Forecast
Nairobi is expected to experience sunny intervals on October 2, followed by light morning rains from October 3 through October 6.
The county will also receive moderate afternoon showers on October 3 and October 4, followed by light showers on October 5 and October 6.
Light showers are also expected during the nights throughout the October 2 to 6 period.
Daytime temperatures are expected to decline from a maximum of 28°C on October 2 to 24°C on October 5 and October 6, while minimum temperatures will range between 13°C and 15°C.
Coastal Counties
Mombasa is expected to record light showers from the night of October 2 through to October 6, with daytime temperatures ranging between 27°C and 29°C.
Kwale will see light showers on October 3, followed by moderate showers on October 4-6, with highs between 27°C and 29°C.
On the other hand, Kilifi is forecast to receive light showers mainly during the mornings and afternoons from October 3 through October 6, with maximum temperatures ranging from 28°C to 30°C.
Additionally, Tana River and Lamu are also expected to experience light showers in the mornings during the week.
Taita/Taveta will have sunny intervals on October 2, followed by light rain from October 4 to October 6 and moderate showers in the afternoon of October 4.
Also Read: Weatherman Lists 25 Counties to Receive Rain as Temperatures Drop to 6°C
Eastern Kenya
Several counties in eastern Kenya are expected to experience rainfall from October 3 onwards.
Meru is forecast to receive light rains during the mornings from October 3 to October 6, with moderate showers expected on the nights of October 4 to 6.
Maximum temperatures in Meru will range from 23°C to 27 °C during the week.
Tharaka-Nithi will also receive light morning rain from October 3 to 6, with light to moderate showers in the afternoons and nights, and temperatures between 23°C and 25°C.
Embu, Kitui and Machakos are expected to experience light morning rains from October 3 to October 6, with moderate showers, and rain also forecast at night.
Makueni will remain mainly sunny on October 2 and October 3 before receiving light rains from October 4 to October 6, with moderate showers on the night of October 4.
Central Kenya
Nyandarua will receive light morning rain from October 3 through October 6, with light afternoon showers also expected.
Temperatures will fall as low as 6°C on October 4.
In addition, Nyeri is expected to receive light rain on October 3, moderate rain on October 4, and light rain on October 5 and October 6.
Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu are also forecast to receive light rains from October 3 through October 6, with moderate showers expected on the nights of October 3 and October 4 in parts of the region.
Northern Kenya
Parts of northern Kenya will also experience rainfall; Wajir is forecast to receive light rains during the mornings, alongside light afternoon and night showers.
Marsabit will experience light rains, with moderate rains forecast on October 5, while Isiolo, Garissa, and Mandera experience light rains during the week.
Turkana will remain predominantly sunny throughout the forecast period, with maximum temperatures reaching 38°C on October 4 and October 5.
Western Kenya and Rift Valley Weekly Weather Forecast
Several counties in western Kenya and the Rift Valley are forecast to receive afternoon showers, particularly from October 4, including West Pokot, Trans Nzoia and Baringo.
Uasin Gishu will experience light afternoon showers on October 4 and October 6, while Elgeyo-Marakwet is forecast to receive light showers from October 3 through October 6.
Nandi is expected to receive light showers on the afternoon of October 4, while Laikipia will receive light rain from October 4 to 6 mornings.
Nakuru is forecast to receive light morning rains on October 4 and afternoon showers from October 4 through October 6, while Kericho and Bomet are expected to receive light afternoon showers from October 4 to 6.
Nyanza Region
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority has also forecast afternoon showers in several Nyanza counties, including Kakamega and Vihiga.
Bungoma and Busia will receive light afternoon showers from October 4 through October 6, while Siaya will receive light morning rains.
Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Kisii are expected to receive light afternoon showers during the period.
Nyamira is forecast to receive light rain on the morning of October 6, along with afternoon showers from October 3 through October 6.
Also Read: Kenya Met Warns of Rain in 37 Counties This Week as El Niño Builds for October
What Is Expected During the October-November-December Weather Forecast
According to KMSA’s OND 2026 forecast, rains were already continuing from September in Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok, with the season expected to continue into January.
In Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and Nairobi, the rains are expected to begin in the second to third week of October and continue into January.
For Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and inland Tana River, the rains are forecast to start in the third to fourth week of October and continue into January.
In Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi and the Tana Delta, the season is expected to begin in the second to third week of October, with rains likely to end in the first to second week of December.
For Turkana and Samburu, KMSA forecasts the rains to start in the third to fourth week of October, with cessation expected in the first week of December.
Meanwhile, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo are expected to receive the rains from the second to third week of October, with cessation projected for the first to second week of December.
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