The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) has released a regional climate outlook for the June–September 2026 (JJAS) rainfall season across Kenya and other East African countries.
According to the ICPAK forecast, Kenya is among several countries expected to experience above-normal temperatures between June and September 2026.
The regional outlook indicates that Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Kenya are likely to experience warmer-than-usual conditions, with a low chance of below-normal temperatures across the Greater Horn of Africa.
ICPAC said the developing 2026 climate conditions resemble the strong El Niño years of 1997 and 2023, periods associated with below-normal rainfall in parts of western Kenya and neighboring countries.
“Observed rainfall in both 1997 and 2023 was below normal over substantial parts of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya. As expected, the spatial patterns vary and 2023 was also dry over southern Somalia; however, with these caveats, the pattern broadly matches the regions with predicted enhanced chances of below normal in JJAS 2026,” the outlook read in part.
ICPAC Signals Heightened Risk to Agriculture
From the outlook, ICPAC has warned of a heightened risk to agriculture and water resources due to reduced chances of heavy seasonal rainfall across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
Also Read: Weatherman Lists Areas Expected to Receive Heavy Rainfall This Week
The outlook indicates a lower probability of exceeding 500 millimeters of rainfall in parts of southern South Sudan, northern Uganda, southern Sudan, and the Ethiopian Highlands during the June–September season.
ICPAC noted that the reduced rainfall outlook reinforces earlier forecasts, indicating below-normal seasonal rainfall across several high-impact agricultural zones in the region.
The agency warned that the expected rainfall deficits could negatively affect rainfed farming, water availability, and hydropower generation, urging governments and stakeholders to prepare for possible disruptions.
“Stakeholders are encouraged to factor this elevated risk of insufficient seasonal rainfall into anticipatory planning across the affected sectors,” the outlook advised.
Also Read: Kenya Met Predicts When Heavy Rains Will Subside in May Weather Outlook
The 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum
The forecast was released during the 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum held in Ethiopia, bringing together meteorological agencies, the World Meteorological Organization, and regional climate experts.
Speaking at the opening of the ceremony, IGAD Deputy Executive Secretary Mohamed Abdi Ware stressed the need for governments and the public to utilize the forecast information and other advisories issued for advance planning.
“Across the region, we are increasingly shifting the conversation from ‘early warning’ to ‘early warning linked to anticipatory action,’ recognizing that climate information must ultimately support action and preparedness to make a difference,” Mohamed said.
