Researchers at the University of Oxford have developed a new risk prediction calculator designed to estimate an individual’s chances of developing serious muscle disorders while taking statins, offering doctors and patients a new way to weigh the benefits and risks of the widely used cholesterol-lowering drugs.
The calculator tool is based on findings published in The Lancet Digital Health on Thursday, June 25.
Researchers found that more than 98% of people identified by general practitioners as eligible for statin treatment had a low predicted risk of developing serious muscle disorders over the next 10 years.
Oxford Researchers Develop New Statin Risk Prediction Calculator
The prediction model was developed using anonymized health records from more than 5.6 million people registered with GP practices across England.
Researchers used information from more than 1.7 million patients to build the model and tested its performance using data from another 3.9 million people.
The calculator analyzes 22 routinely collected health factors to estimate the likelihood of serious muscle disorders over one, five, and 10 years.
The 22 Health Factors Used to Predict Individual Risk
Those factors include age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, existing medical conditions, previous muscle problems, vitamin D deficiency, current medications, and statin prescriptions.
According to researchers, the calculator will complement other tools for assessing cardiovascular risk, such as QRISK, and allow doctors to consider the potential benefits of statin treatment alongside the risk of serious adverse effects.
The study also revealed a significant gap between people who qualify for statin treatment and those who actually receive it.
Why Millions of Eligible Patients Still Avoid Statins
According to the findings, more than 60% of people who were eligible for statins were not taking the medication, even though many faced an elevated risk of heart attack or stroke.
Fears about muscle side effects remain one of the main reasons some patients refuse treatment, researchers said. They say the calculator could help bridge that gap by giving individual risk estimates rather than generalized warnings.
“There is a huge worry in the general population about these drugs based on rare side effects,” said Dr. Nishant Shah, a preventive cardiologist at Duke Health in Durham, North Carolina, who was not involved with the latest research.
The study focused only on serious muscle disorders that resulted in hospital admission or death. It did not include common muscle aches or soreness, which researchers said are often not caused by statins themselves.
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Lead author Dr. Ting Cai, a Research Fellow at Oxford University’s Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, said the findings should reassure most patients considering treatment.
“Serious muscle disorders are one of the most widely discussed concerns about statins, but our findings suggest that the risk is very low for the vast majority of people who may benefit from treatment,” Cai said.
“Understanding a person’s risk can help put those concerns into perspective, support more informed treatment decisions, and provide reassurance. For the small number of people at higher risk, it gives clinicians a clearer basis for discussing monitoring, checks, or alternative treatment options.”
How the Tool Could Improve Statin Treatment Decisions
Senior author Professor James Sheppard said that treatment decisions have traditionally focused on estimating future cardiovascular risk, while much less attention has been paid to predicting potential harms.
“This research helps address that gap by providing a way to estimate a person’s risk of serious muscle disorders alongside their cardiovascular risk,” Sheppard said.
“Bringing those two pieces of information together could support more personalized and better-informed decisions about statin treatment.”
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Professor Constantinos Koshiaris, Assistant Professor of Medical Statistics at the University of Nicosia Medical School and another senior author of the study, said understanding both benefits and risks is essential for informed care.
“Clinical decisions are often based on estimates of potential benefit, but understanding potential harms is equally important,” Koshiaris said.
“This model provides a way to quantify that risk at an individual level, helping support more balanced discussion about treatment options.”
Statins are among the most commonly prescribed drugs in the world. They reduce cholesterol levels and the risk of major cardiovascular events, particularly in people who already have heart disease or are at increased risk.
The new calculator is available through Oxford University Innovation’s software platform and is expected to help clinicians provide more personalized guidance during consultations.
