U.S. health care spending is projected to surpass $6 trillion in 2026, driven by higher utilization of medical services and rapid growth in prescriptions for GLP-1 receptor agonists used for diabetes and obesity.
Government data released this week shows the trend already accelerated in 2025, with total spending reaching $5.7 trillion.
2025 Spending Hits $5.7 Trillion
Americans spent $5.7 trillion on health care in 2025, a 7.3% increase from 2024, according to figures published in Health Affairs on June 24, 2026. The total equated to nearly $16,500 per person.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) projections, cited by Bloomberg, forecast spending will top $6 trillion in 2026.
Prescription drug expenditures alone are expected to exceed $560 billion next year, up 8.2% from 2025 and growing faster than any other major category.
Higher volumes of doctor visits, hospital procedures, and prescriptions pushed costs above earlier forecasts. Persistent high prices in the U.S. health care system amplified the effect, according to the reports.
Also Read: Social Security Data Leak Exposes Provider Records in Medicare Database Error
GLP-1 Drugs Emerge as Major Cost Driver
GLP-1 drugs, including semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) from Novo Nordisk and tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) from Eli Lilly, have become a distinct and fast-growing spending category.
These injectable medications, originally approved for type 2 diabetes, gained widespread use for weight loss after clinical trials showed substantial effectiveness.
Demand has strained budgets for governments, employers, and households. The drugs require ongoing use for sustained results, turning them into a chronic cost center rather than one-time treatments. CMS data highlight prescription drugs led by this class as the fastest-expanding segment of national health expenditures.
Production scale has expanded to meet demand, as seen at Novo Nordisk facilities in Denmark. Insurance coverage expansions and telehealth prescribing have further increased access and prescription volumes.
Budget Pressure Across Payers
Employers and public programs face direct pressure from rising GLP-1 spending. Multiple surveys and forecasts have flagged the drugs as a leading factor behind elevated health cost trends, with some projections estimating increases of between 6.5% and 10% for employer-sponsored plans.
Also Read: Trump’s Social Security Tax Cuts Face Scrutiny Over $168 Billion Revenue Loss
State Medicaid programs and Medicare Part D also absorb significant shares of the costs as eligibility and utilization rise.
The $5.7 trillion spent in 2025 already reflected utilization that exceeded economist expectations. The combination of more care delivered at U.S. price levels has increased health care’s share of the economy, contributing to ongoing affordability concerns.
Outlook and Spending Trajectory
CMS projects prescription drug spending will continue outpacing other health care categories in 2026. Broader estimates from organizations such as IQVIA have also pointed to strong double-digit growth pressures in drug segments tied to obesity and diabetes treatments.
No immediate reversal is expected. Clinical demand remains high due to the drugs’ effectiveness in controlling blood sugar levels and supporting weight loss.
Total national health spending crossing the $6 trillion mark would represent another milestone in the sector’s expansion. Per-person costs, already near $16,500 in 2025, are expected to rise further.
