Govt Issues Fresh Alert on Expected El Niño Rains, Reveals Plans in Place

Government Spokesperson Charles Owino has updated the public on the government’s preparedness for the anticipated October–November–December El Niño rains.

In a press statement on September 10, 2026, Owino said the government has adopted a coordinated, multi-agency approach to prepare for the anticipated rains, which are projected to begin in October 2026 and continue into early 2027.

According to the Kenya Meteorological Services Authority, an El Niño event is anticipated during the period.

Owino said current forecasts indicate that Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, currently at positive 2.7, are expected to rise further. The warmer ocean temperatures are expected to contribute to high rainfall across the country.

“According to the Kenya Meteorological Services Authority, an El Niño event is anticipated. The current weather forecast, based on sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean, which indicate a classification greater than positive 2.7 over most of the region, predicts the sea surface temperature will surpass this value,” he said.

He also explained that more intense and potentially destructive rainfall typically requires the Indian Ocean Dipole to rise above positive 0.4. The current IOD value stands at positive 0.25, which Owino described as neutral.

The meteorological department is continuing to monitor the Indian Ocean Dipole to track whether it rises above the positive 0.4 level.

Despite the current IOD reading, Owino said Kenya has a 90% chance of experiencing above-average or very high rainfall due to the anticipated El Niño conditions.

Govt warns Kenyans to prepare early as El Niño rains approach

The government has urged Kenyans to prepare early and take precautionary measures ahead of the anticipated enhanced rains expected from October 2026 into early 2027.

Also Read: Kenya Met Explains How 2026 El Niño Compares to 1997

Owino said there was no cause for panic but called on government institutions, communities and individuals to remain alert and follow appropriate precautionary measures.

He noted that the western region has continued to experience depressed rainfall and intense heat waves ahead of the expected enhanced rains, resulting in crop failures in the region.

The government has adopted a coordinated multi-agency approach to prepare for the anticipated rains, with all state departments expected to establish national standing committees for El Niño preparedness and incident management.

“All state departments are expected to have formed national standing committees for preparedness on El Niño incident management.”

Counties told to map high-risk areas ahead of El Niño rains

According to the government spokesperson, county governments, with support from national government administration offices, are expected to take measures to protect lives and livelihoods, safeguard critical infrastructure and ensure response mechanisms can be activated quickly when required.

Also Read: World Meteorological Organisation Issues Major El Niño Warning as New Weather Threat Emerges

Counties are also expected to map areas likely to be affected by the rains and prepare the safely evacuate families from high-risk locations.

Owino said people living in riparian areas are expected to vacate the areas and move to safer grounds ahead of the rains.

The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority will continue issuing updates on El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole conditions and the October-November-December weather patterns as they develop.

Owino said the updates will be issued monthly or as needed.

He added that the government will work with development and humanitarian partners on national El Niño preparedness to ensure communities receive information needed to protect themselves, their families and livelihoods.

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