Kenya Meteorological Department (Met) has warned that most parts of the country will receive above average rainfall from the second or third week of October.
In a statement seen by The Kenya Times, Met emphasized that counties in the highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the central and parts of south Rift Valley including Nairobi County, the Northeast, the Coast, and most of the Southeastern lowlands are likely to receive above average rainfall.
Further, the department said northwestern, parts of the South Rift Valley and parts of the Southeastern lowlands are likely to receive near above average rainfall.
“The rainfall in October 2023 is expected to be well distributed across most parts of the country, both in time and space,” said the Met Department.
Additionally, Met said the anticipated rains are likely to impact agriculture, disaster management, environment, health, water resource management and transport and public safety.
Agriculture and Food Security
Met said the rainfall is expected to provide favorable conditions for agricultural endeavors in the high-potential regions encompassing the Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, Central and South Rift Valley, as well as the Southeastern lowlands.
Moreover, it is foreseen that pastureland will undergo rejuvenation in the arid and semi-arid (ASAL) areas of the Northern, Southeastern, and Coastal regions.
Further, Met encouraged farmers to seize this opportunity to expand their crop cultivation and pasture production to fully leverage the projected high rains.
“All the same, it is essential to be mindful of potential challenges that may arise with enhanced rainfall, including soil erosion, waterlogging, and land degradation.
To mitigate these issues, farmers are advised to implement soil conservation measures and embrace sustainable land management practices as part of their strategies,” read the statement in part.
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Disaster Management
Additionally, Met said low-lying areas of the northern regions, the Southeastern lowlands, the Coastal region, parts of the Central and South Rift Valley, and inadequately drained urban areas are likely to experience isolated storms which could result in flash floods.
“It is strongly recommended that the general public refrain from walking or driving through flooded areas or attempting to cross swollen rivers to prevent loss of life,” said Met.
Moreover, it advised relevant authorities to implement measures addressing flood-related concerns, including the provision of both food and non-food supplies, as well as resource mobilization.
Additionally, there is a chance of lightning strikes happening over the Lake Victoria Basin and Western parts of the country, notably in areas like Kisii, Kisumu, Nandi, Kakamega, and Bungoma (specifically, Mt. Elgon areas).
For this reason, the Met department warned the public against seeking shelter under trees or near metallic structures when it rains.
Environment
Also, Met explained that the increased rainfall is expected to supply ample soil moisture, promoting favorable conditions for tree growth.
Therefore, Met recommended that the public engage in tree planting initiatives to contribute to the expansion of forest cover across the country.
However, it noted that excessive rainfall can potentially result in environmental deterioration, particularly in the form of soil erosion.
Considering this, the public is advised to adopt sound agricultural practices, including the implementation of soil conservation measures, to help safeguard and preserve the environment.
Health
However, Met said there is a potential risk of higher instances of waterborne and vector-borne diseases due to water source contamination resulting from flooding and the presence of stagnant water.
To mitigate these risks, it is advisable for relevant authorities to strengthen disease surveillance and early detection systems.
The department called on authorities to distribute insecticide-treated mosquito nets to areas with a higher risk of malaria outbreaks.
Furthermore, providing water treatment chemicals to communities that rely on open water sources is crucial for ensuring safe drinking water.
Also, Met stated that promoting education on Water and Sanitation Hygiene (WASH) practices can play a vital role in preventing the spread of waterborne disease.
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Water Resources Management and Energy
To meet their water requirements, the public is encouraged to adopt rainwater harvesting and storage practices.
Nevertheless, the increased rainfall may have some adverse effects, including heightened siltation and sedimentation in certain rivers and dams, as well as the potential for flooding, when a river channel overflows, urban flooding, and flash floods.
Considering these challenges, relevant authorities are advised to prioritize dam desilting efforts and implement measures for separating stormwater and wastewater channels.
These steps can help mitigate the impact of flooding on communities.
Furthermore, the increased inflow into hydropower reservoirs is expected to boost hydropower generation and contribute to groundwater recharge for geothermal power production.
However, it is important to note that this heightened rainfall may also lead to disruptions in power supply, which could result in social and economic losses.
Therefore, there is a pressing need to enhance power transmission and distribution infrastructure to ensure a reliable stable power supply.
Transport and Public Safety
Anticipated intermittent flash floods could result in the disruption of transportation infrastructure, particularly in the regions of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, Tana River Basin, Northeastern, and sections of the Southeastern lowlands.
As such, reduced visibility caused by the weather conditions may lead to a rise in road, marine, and aviation accidents
