A new survey has revealed how Kenyans believe former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua should position himself ahead of the 2027 General Election as efforts to unite the opposition gain momentum.
According to the latest Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) survey, respondents shared varying views on the role they believe Gachagua should play if the opposition is to maximize its chances of defeating President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.
The survey found that 62 percent of respondents opposed to President Ruto’s re-election believe Gachagua should support another opposition candidate rather than lead the coalition himself.
“Nearly two-thirds (62%) believe Gachagua should support the strongest opposition candidate, compared with just 14% who want him to lead the opposition ticket,” states the survey.
33 percent said they believe Rigathi will be allowed by the courts to contest but should support another opposition candidate to beat Ruto, while 29 percent said he should back another opposition flagbearer if his legal challenge over his impeachment is unsuccessful and he is barred from contesting.
Only 14 percent said Gachagua becoming the opposition’s presidential candidate if cleared to run would be the opposition’s best chance of defeating Ruto.
Meanwhile, 5 percent believe President Ruto cannot be defeated regardless of the strategy adopted by the opposition, while 19 percent said they were unsure.
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Gachagua Faces Stiff Competition Within Opposition
In the report, TIFA said there was little difference between those who preferred Gachagua to contest before backing another candidate and those who wanted him to support another leader if he is unable to vie.
“Among those who are opposed to Ruto’s re-election next year, there is a very even split in opinion as to what position former DP Gachagua should take, given also the uncertainty of the outcome of his legal challenge to his impeachment-removal as DP and thus his very eligibility to contest. Specifically, about the same proportion believe this result is most likely if he is allowed to contest but instead back someone else as those who feel this outcome is most likely if he backs someone else even if he is not allowed to contest (33% vs. 29%).”
TIFA added that relatively few respondents believe Gachagua himself should carry the opposition’s presidential flag.
“By contrast, far fewer think Ruto could be defeated by Gachagua himself – again assuming he is allowed to contest (14%).”
Gachagua Trails Sifuna, Matiang’i and Kalonzo on preferred opposition candidate
The survey also asked respondents which opposition leader they believe has the best chance of defeating President Ruto in the next General Election.
The findings placed Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i jointly at the top with 18 percent each.
They were followed by Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka at 16 percent, while Gachagua ranked fourth with 14 percent.
Another 10 percent of respondents said they were undecided, while 6 percent believed no opposition leader could defeat President Ruto.
The findings suggest that although Gachagua remains a key opposition figure, Kenyans are divided over who is best placed to lead a united opposition against President Ruto.
Also Read: Sifuna Overpowers Oburu’s ODM Faction, Named Fastest Rising Candidate in Fresh Poll
DCP Supporters Rally Behind Gachagua
Despite the mixed national views, the survey found that Rigathi enjoys strong backing within his own political base.
Among supporters of the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), 44 percent identified Gachagua as their preferred presidential candidate, making him the party’s clear favourite ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The survey also ranked DCP as Kenya’s third most popular political party, attracting 12 percent support nationally, behind the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 20 percent and the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 17 percent.
Ruto Maintains National Lead
While the opposition continues to debate its strategy, President Ruto remains the country’s preferred presidential candidate.
The TIFA survey shows Ruto leading the national race with 24 percent support, followed by Edwin Sifuna at 15 percent, Fred Matiang’i at 14 percent, Kalonzo Musyoka at 13 percent, and Rigathi Gachagua at 7 percent.
According to TIFA, the figures suggest that while President Ruto continues to lead nationally, the opposition vote remains split among several prominent figures, underscoring the importance of unity if it hopes to mount a strong challenge in 2027.
The survey was conducted between June 13 and June 22, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with 2,048 respondents across all 47 counties. It has a margin of error of ±2.18 percent.
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