Vegetable prices are predicted to drop in the coming months, even as staple food costs, including flour, sugar, and cooking oil, continue to rise, according to the Central Bank of Kenya’s May 2026 Agriculture Survey.
The survey paints a mixed outlook for food prices, with businesses expecting improved supplies of fresh produce to ease prices for some commodities while higher fuel costs and global supply risks push up the cost of key household staples.
According to the CBK survey, respondents anticipate price increases for several food items, including wheat flour, maize flour, cooking oil and sugar.
“The survey findings indicate that overall, respondents reported a balanced outlook, with price increases more pronounced in staple foods captured under the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), while fresh produce is expected to decline,” read the CBK Survey.
CBK Survey Points to Higher Fuel Costs Driving Food Prices Up
According to the CBK Agriculture Survey, the expectations are largely driven by concerns over rising transport costs following fuel price adjustments and uncertainty in global markets.
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At the same time, prices of fresh vegetables such as sukuma wiki, spinach, and other traditional vegetables are expected to decline due to increased supply following favorable rainfall during the March-May long rains season.
“The respondents’ price expectations in relation to sampled food items in the non-core CPI were mixed in May 2026 as results revealed expected price increases for some items and expected price declines for others,” the CBK report states.
The survey indicates that transportation costs remain one of the biggest concerns for traders and businesses.
Following the latest fuel price review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), businesses expect higher costs of moving food from farms to markets, which could eventually be passed on to consumers.
Food Price Pressure Eases Despite Global Risks
The respondents also cited global developments, particularly tensions in the Middle East, as a potential threat to food prices.
The CBK noted concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which about 20 percent of global oil supplies pass.
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Any disruption in the region could trigger higher global fuel prices and increase inflationary pressures in Kenya.
Despite these risks, the survey found that expectations of food price increases have eased compared to April 2026.
Businesses were less likely to predict across-the-board increases in food prices, suggesting that improved harvest prospects are helping cushion consumers against some inflationary pressures.
Data from the CBK survey show the strongest expectations for price increases were concentrated on processed and staple goods, including sugar, cooking oil, wheat flour and maize flour.
Several fresh produce categories recorded neutral or negative price expectations, indicating likely price declines in the short term.
Expected Food Price Changes from CBK Agriculture Survey – May 2026
| Category | Food Item | Expected Price Trend | Main Reason |
| Staple Food | Maize flour | Increase | Higher transport costs, fuel prices |
| Wheat flour | Increase | Global supply uncertainty, fuel costs | |
| Cooking oil | Increase | Import costs, global market pressures | |
| Sugar | Increase | Processing and transport costs | |
| Rice (various types) | Slight increase | Import dependency, logistics costs | |
| Fresh Produce | Sukuma wiki (kales) | Decrease | Increased supply after good rains |
| Spinach | Decrease | Improved harvests | |
| Traditional vegetables | Decrease | Seasonal abundance | |
| Tomatoes | Mixed/slight rise | Supply variability | |
| Onions | Increase | Higher transport costs | |
| Potatoes | Mixed | Regional supply differences | |
| Other Food Items | Beans | Moderate increase | Transport and storage costs |
| Green maize | Decrease | Harvest season | |
| Fruits (selected types) | Mixed | Seasonal effects |
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