The ongoing debate over whether Kenya can move from a third-world to a first-world country has gained momentum, with attendant affirmation and contrarian views in equal measure. Supporters postulate that it is indeed possible to achieve the feat. In contrast, many others hold the view that the country is far from the ideal trajectory and therefore not well positioned to attain the coveted status.
From the outset, it is important to put the categorization of countries into context, especially in terms of their levels of development. The classification of countries into first, second, and third worlds was based on political affiliations, especially during the Cold War.
First-world countries were industrialized, espoused capitalism, and aligned with the United States of America and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), comprising 30 countries in Europe and 2 in North America.
On the other hand, second-world countries were mainly aligned with the defunct Soviet Union and the communist bloc, which were hallmarked by communism. Third-world countries were non-aligned, implying that they were neutral and backed neither the first nor the second world during the Cold War.
In the current world order, the term third world has been loosely used to denote the economically struggling countries, especially those situated in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. These countries are interchangeably referred to as developing or least developed countries.
How World Bank Classifies countries including Kenya
Based on the World Bank taxonomy, countries are classified via a system predicated on gross national income (GNI) per capita, the nation’s average income per person. The classification comprises four categories: low-income, lower-middle-income, upper-middle-income, and high-income countries.
The World Bank classifies countries with a GNI per capita of USD or less. 1,135 as low income, between USD. 1,136 to USD. 4,495 as lower middle income, between USD. 4,496 to USD. 13,935 as upper middle income, and above USD.13,935 as high income.
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In Africa, only Seychelles is ranked as a high-income country, and eight others are ranked as upper-middle-income countries, including Algeria, Botswana, Cape Verde, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, South Africa, and Mauritius.
According to the World Bank data for 2024, Kenya’s nominal gross national income per capita was USD. 2,550, thus placed as a lower-middle-income country.
Human Development Index
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has put forth what is referred to as the Human Development Index (HDI), which considers the performance of countries’ salient sectors, including health, education, income, and living conditions, providing a measure of human development that is compared among countries.
Under the taxonomy, countries are classified into low, medium, high, and very high human development. The UNDP has established thresholds based on standardized composite averages from indicator values on life expectancy, literacy levels, and gross national income per capita.
Countries with a human development index value below 0.550 are classified as low human development; those between 0.550 and 0.669 are medium human development; those between 0.700 and 0.799 are high human development; and those with a value of 0.800 or greater are very high human development.
According to UNDP’s 2024 report, Seychelles and Mauritius ranked as Africa’s most developed countries, with human development indices of 0.848 and 0.806, respectively. Kenya’s human development index, as computed for 2023/2024, was 0.628, placing it in the medium human development category.
The United Nations classifies countries as developing economies, economies in transition, and developed economies, with the basis of this classification being predicated on individual countries’ economic performance status. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) World Data Index 2025, Kenya is a developing economy because of its lower economic performance.
Kenya’s first world dream
Based on the foregoing, it is apparent that Kenya has a herculean task to surmount to achieve the envisaged status as a developed economy. The country has been on a growth trajectory over the years, although the growth has sometimes plateaued. In worst-case scenarios, like during the post-election violence of 2007/08 and the COVID-19 pandemic, it actually regressed.
Pursuing the growth agenda requires a multifaceted approach in which the government must be more deliberate in enhancing economic performance by marshalling efforts in strategic investments in human capital, providing superior education and skills, and being more ingenious in giving the requisite opportunities.
Kenya’s population is pretty educated, with attendant skill sets that can be better harnessed, but what one witnesses are outlier conditions: the very qualified are either unemployed or underemployed.
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On the other hand, hordes of young people are let off the transitional stages of the education cycle, and many waste away and drift into the informal sector, where their contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) is negligible.
A robust infrastructure program is on the cards with an ambitious Ksh5 trillion national infrastructure fund meant to bolster roads, energy, and agriculture projects. Although it is good to have big, hairy, and audacious goals, it is essential to factor in the dynamics of obtaining them so we are realistic and do not stretch our obligations too far, if at all.
Since roping in private players through public-private partnerships is feasible, the scale of commitment must align with the country’s immediate and future priority areas that require urgent attention. Over-commitment becomes a harbinger of disillusionment and disenchantment in the long run.
Better fiscal management
A more diversified economy is a prerequisite where better fiscal management ensures stability and predictability, which ought to be augmented by a functional monetary policy that guarantees an interest rate regime that is generalizable to the actual position of the economy, bereft of consistent artificial management that is meant to attain predetermined goals.
Continuously presenting lofty macro-economic statistics that aren’t in alignment with the prevailing conditions is an exercise in futility. These statistics must correspond with the people’s living conditions, mainly focusing on life expectancy by dealing with known health risks as well as proactively preparing for the unknown, which can be ensured through the provision of better healthcare and improvement of the social welfare program, which faces long-running headwinds.
The government must make every effort to ensure that the poverty rate is substantially reduced, as the World Bank’s 2025 index puts it at approximately 43.8%, a figure that is quite stark.
In the fullness of time, Kenya’s attainment of developed-economy status will not be realized through hasty, grandiose delusions, but through the focused, methodical, and consistent pursuit of modest, tested indicators that will cumulatively usher in a seamless transition to the envisaged better prospects.
This article was written by Dr. Patrick Dan Mukhongo, a Project Management Consultant.
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