Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka remains the most likely candidate to lead the Azimio Coalition after the exit of NARC Kenya Party leader Martha Karua and the nomination of ODM members to the cabinet.
Even though former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has maintained that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party has not entered into any coalition agreement with President William Ruto’s UDA, the nomination of ODM Chairman John Mbadi (National Treasury), National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Ali Hassan Joho (Mining & Blue Economy), and Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives) has rubbed the other Azimio leaders the wrong way.
On July 25, NARC announced its exit from the Azimio Coalition. This came a day after Karua announced that she will not join Ruto’s government but will instead stand with the Gen Z and the people of Kenya.
In a letter to Azimio Secretary General Junet Mohammed, the party said it could not continue being part of the Coalition due to the changes in the political space.
“Kindly take note that our stay in Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition is not tenable due to the prevailing political developments. As NARC Kenya, by way of this letter, we are giving notice to exit the Coalition as stipulated in the exit clause(s) in the Coalition Agreement. This notice is effective from the date of this letter,” read the letter.
Kalonzo and other Azimio leaders, including DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa, have also reiterated that they will stand with Kenyans and the protesting Gen Zs.
“For the love of my Nation and my conscience, I cannot join Ruto’s regime. Even Ruto knows that” Kalonzo said.
As such, experts have weighed in on the recent developments, including Kalonzo’s position, the Gen Z protests, and how they will impact President Ruto’s re-election.
Gen Z Political Influence
Speaking to The Kenya Times, political analyst Mark Bichachi said the 2027 election might be the Gen Z versus the political class.
“2027 is far away; three years is an eternity in politics. It may be Gen Z vs tribe or Gen Z vs the bad manners in politics,” Bichachi said.
However, he mentioned that to remain influential in 2027, the youth must have the same spirit, field their own candidate, and vote for him or her.
“What matters is whether they will carry the same spirit and actually field their own candidates as well as vote for them. They must remember that they will have to organize in order to achieve their goals,” he added.
In agreement, political analyst Maimuna Mwidau said the politics of Kenya has changed with the entry of Gen Z and the recent addition of ODM into the government.
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Mwidau explained that Gen Z has impacted politics by shifting the ground, making the opposition irrelevant, changing the negotiating tactics, and eroding the tribal narratives of negotiating based on tribal numbers.
“The Gen Z have redirected the Kenyan political space to think on issues-based agendas of development to integrity and accountability,” Mwidau said.
Similarly, she stated that Gen Z must have a plan for the 2027 election if they are committed to changing the political narrative.
Mwidau said if the youth are well organized, they can compete effectively with the political elites and maybe usher in a new era of youthful politics.
“Definitely, the Gen Z need to plan for 2027 if they are serious about bringing positive change. Their numbers will give the political elite a run for their money. Equally, the country may see a new era of youthful politics and the end of an era of the senior established political elite,” she said.
What Next for Kalonzo
According to the analyst, Kalonzo is the remaining opposition leader after the recent political developments.
Bichachi explained that the former Vice President can either step up to occupy the position or waste the opportunity.
“Kalonzo is now the de facto head of the opposition. He either rises to the role or he drowns in wasted opportunity,” he said.
Exit of ODM
Bichachi said the Azimio Coalition has been disorganized, adding that the remaining parties cannot hold the government accountable after the seeming exit of ODM.
“The first thing we must understand is that the opposition is now confused. The only major parliamentary parties not in government are Wiper and DAP-K. There is no ODM in opposition, and much as they would like to pretend that they want to lead the minority, they are now compromised,” he said.
Mwidau said the entry of ODM into government has propelled the breaking up of the opposition coalition.
She stated that the move has led to the rise of political elite games of power brokerage, which does not sit well with the new narrative.
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Genz Vs Political Elites
However, Mwidau said none of the top political leaders stands a chance of benefiting from the entry of some ODM members into the government.
“There is no specific beneficiary from the ODM move come 2027. The game has changed politics for the best of this country,” she said.
Mwidau explained that the political elites must unite and run against the Gen Z in 2027 if they have to survive this political wave.
“Kalonzo, Ruto, and Raila all belong in the same group of elites who have been in the system for many years. The only way to survive this onslaught is if they regroup and compete with the Gen Zs,” she said.
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