50%+1 Race: Counties That Could Decide Ruto’s 2027 Re-Election

President William Ruto has led the latest opinion polls and ranks as the preferred candidate in the 2027 elections. His path to a second term will depend on how his support holds up across Kenya’s major voting blocs. Retaining previous support in 2022 and increasing influence in opposition-leaning counties could determine whether he crosses the constitutional 50% plus one threshold in the first round.

Ruto won the 2022 presidential election with 7,176,141 votes, representing 50.49%, defeating Raila Odinga, who received 6,942,930 votes, or 48.85%.

According to Infotrak’s June survey, President William Ruto remains ahead but well below the 50% mark. The survey gave him 32%, followed by Kalonzo Musyoka at 13%, while Edwin Sifuna and Fred Matiang’i each had 12%. Eighteen percent of respondents were undecided.

TIFA’s survey, conducted in June and released in July, put Ruto at 24%, followed by Sifuna at 15%, Matiang’i at 14%, and Kalonzo at 13%. Twenty percent remained undecided.

Nairobi and Mt Kenya’s Vote-Rich Counties

Nairobi will remain one of the most important counties because of its electorate and its 2022 voting pattern. Raila won the capital with about 57% of the presidential vote, while Ruto received about 41%. The county had 2,416,551 registered voters in 2022.

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The capital also recorded 276,886 new voters during the latest IEBC Enhanced Continuous Voter Registration exercise, the highest number nationally. Kenya registered 2,345,476 new voters during the exercise, with Nairobi accounting for 11.8%.

In Kiambu, Ruto won the county in 2022 with more than 606,000 votes, while Raila received about 396,000. Kiambu also registered 128,859 new voters, the second-highest county total. Nakuru registered 102,207 new voters and was another important Ruto stronghold, with Ruto taking about 65.9% of the presidential vote in 2022.

Infotrak’s latest regional findings, however, show that Mt Kenya cannot be treated as a settled bloc. Ruto had 12% support in Central Kenya, while Matiang’i led at 19% and 26% of respondents remained undecided.

Since Gachagua launched his Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) in 2025, the former DP has been campaigning against Ruto. Several leaders from the regionhave also ditched Ruto’s UDA and joined DCP, including Irungu Kanga’ata

Kithure Kindiki, who is Ruto’s deputy, has been actively defending the President’s support in Mt Kenya.

According to Infotrak poll released in July 2026, Kindiki was the preferred potential running mate for Ruto among Mt Kenya respondents at 41%, well ahead of Anne Waiguru at 14%.

President Ruto Western Kenya and the Rift Valley Votes

Kakamega recorded 93,858 new voters, while Bungoma added 73,599 new votes. In 2022, Raila won Kakamega, while Ruto carried Bungoma.

Infotrak’s poll placed Ruto at 35% in Western Kenya, compared with 26% for Sifuna, while 19% were undecided.

The Rift Valley remains central to Ruto’s 2027 calculations because the secured large margins in several counties in 2022. Infotrak’s latest poll gives him 46% regional support, his second-highest regional rating after North Eastern’s 59%.

Uasin Gishu, one of Ruto’s political strongholds, recorded 64,774 new voters in the latest registration exercise, while Nandi added 52,630 and Trans Nzoia 42,254.

In 2022, Raila received 6.94 million votes, about 233,000 fewer than Ruto. Later in 2024, Ruto and Raila formed the broad-based government, bringing the opposition and the government together.

Ruto is trying to protect the massive margins that came from Mt Kenya and Rift Valley while using the broad-based arrangement to penetrate Raila’s former strongholds.

On August 10, Ruto confirmed that Kenya Kwanza and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) have agreed to form a coalition to contest the 2027 General Election during a media briefing by the Broad-Based Government Principal Group, saying the agreement followed consultations within the two political formations ahead of 2027 polls.

Eastern, Coast and Other Competitive Counties

Machakos is another county with a sizeable voting population and a different 2022 pattern. It registered 84,198 new voters, the fifth-highest increase nationally. Raila won the county in 2022 with 304,809 votes against Ruto’s 203,353.

Kisii also remains significant, having added 65,152 new voters, while Meru registered 67,651. Kilifi added 65,572, highlighting its status as a presidential stronghold.

Infotrak’s regional figures show why these areas will attract attention. Ruto had 19% support in Eastern, 33% on the Coast, and 40% in Nyanza, while Kalonzo led Eastern at 40% and Nyanza at 45%.

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Ruto’s 2022 victory rested heavily on large margins in Mt Kenya and parts of the Rift Valley, while Raila’s strongest advantages came from Nairobi, Western Kenya, Nyanza, parts of Eastern and the Coast. But several counties were much closer than their regional labels suggest, including Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Nandi, Kericho and Trans Nzoia.

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