The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released a forecast for October-November-December (OND) 2024 short-rains season. In a statement dated October 28, KMD said short rains OND season constitutes an important rainfall season in Kenya, particularly in the Central and Eastern regions of the country.
According to the Weatherman, the highest seasonal rainfall amounts (greater than 700mm) are normally recorded over the Central highlands.
During OND 2024, the western sector of the country is expected to receive near to slightly above average rainfall, while the central parts of the country and isolated areas over northeast and southeastern lowlands are likely to receive near to below average rainfall.
The Coastal region, most of the Northeast and most of the Southeastern lowlands are expected to receive below average rainfall.
“This will be driven by weak La Niña conditions, characterized by cooler-than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which are likely to develop during the September to November period and persist into early 2025, along with a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole,” KMD said.
According to KMD, the distribution of rainfall is expected to be poor across several parts of the country marked by prolonged dry spells and occasional isolated storms.
Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across most parts of the country, except in a few areas in the western sector where both maximum and minimum temperatures are anticipated to be near normal.
Higher probability for warmer-than-average temperatures are expected over the central and eastern regions of the country.
Rainfall in Lake Victori Basin & Northwestern Counties
The Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley areas are expected to receive rainfall with occasional breaks (dry spells) throughout the season.
The anticipated rainfall is likely to be near or slightly above the long-term average amounts for the season.
Counties in these regions include Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Busia, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Baringo, most parts of Nakuru, parts of Narok, parts of Laikipia and parts of Highlands East of the Rift Valley (western Nyandarua).
Additionally, Northwestern Counties are likely to receive occasional rainfall that is expected to be near to slightly above the long-term average amounts for the season.
This includes Turkana, Western Samburu) and parts of Northeastern Kenya (extreme western parts of Marsabit bordering Lake Turkana).
However, prolonged dry spells are likely, and the expected rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed both in space and time.
Rift Valley & Southeastern
Highlands East of the Rift Valley Counties including Nairobi are likely to experience rainfall with some breaks (dry spells) during the season.
“The expected rainfall is anticipated to be near to below the long-term average for the season,” the Weatherman said.
Other counties in this region are Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, parts of Nyandarua, parts of Embu, parts of Tharaka Nithi), Parts of Central Rift Valley (Southeastern Nakuru) parts of Southeastern Lowlands (western Machakos, central and western Kajiado), parts of Northeastern (Central Marsabit) and parts of Northwestern Kenya (Samburu).
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South-eastern Lowlands Counties of Kitui, Makueni, Taita Taveta, Southeastern Kajiado, eastern Machakos and Tana River are expected to experience intermittent rainfall throughout the season.
However, the total rainfall amounts are likely to be below the long-term average for the season.
Prolonged dry spells are also likely, and the rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed both in space and time.
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Northeastern & Coast
North-Eastern Counties of Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo and eastern parts of Marsabit are expected to experience occasional rainfall throughout the season.
However, the total rainfall amounts are likely to be below the long-term average for the season.
Prolonged dry spells are also likely, and the rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed in both space and time.
The Coastal Counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale and Coastal Tana are expected to receive rainfall with intermittent breaks during the season.
However, the total rainfall amounts are likely to be below the long-term average for the season.
Prolonged dry spells are also likely, and the rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed in both space and time.
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