Rising fuel prices and growing economic pressure linked to the ongoing Iran conflict are fueling panic inside President Donald Trump’s political circle, as advisers warn that voter anger could shape the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections.

Rising costs fuel political concern

Gasoline prices in the United States have climbed sharply in recent weeks, with the national average reaching about $4.58 per gallon, according to industry data cited in multiple reports. That is more than 50 percent higher than levels recorded before the Iran conflict escalated.

A recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll found that about 63 percent of Americans blame President Trump for the increase in fuel prices, while more than 80 percent of respondents said higher pump prices are placing a strain on their household finances.

The price surge has been linked to instability in global oil markets, particularly concerns over supply routes in the Middle East. Brent crude prices have fluctuated above $100 per barrel in recent trading, while jet fuel costs have more than doubled compared to last year, according to energy market data.

White House officials have argued that the economic disruption is temporary and tied to broader security operations. A spokesperson for the administration said the president remains focused on both national security and affordability, pointing to recent declines in some consumer goods prices as evidence of progress.

Advisers warn of midterm risks

Behind the scenes, political advisers are increasingly concerned that sustained inflation at the pump and rising travel costs could translate into electoral losses for Republicans in the midterm elections.

According to reporting attributed to the Wall Street Journal, some members of Trump’s inner circle have privately expressed concern that the economic fallout from the Iran conflict could become a central issue for voters, particularly in competitive districts where cost-of-living concerns are already high.

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Sources say there is growing pressure within Republican strategy circles to resolve or de-escalate the conflict sooner rather than later in order to stabilize energy markets before the election cycle intensifies.

Former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, who has been in contact with administration officials, reportedly warned that airline ticket prices are expected to remain elevated through the summer even if geopolitical tensions ease. He noted that energy costs take time to filter through the broader economy.

Airline industry representatives have echoed similar concerns, warning that rising jet fuel prices are squeezing margins and pushing carriers to raise fares. Domestic airfare has increased by more than 20 percent compared to the same period last year, according to industry data.

Airline and oil market pressure

The aviation sector has already begun to feel the impact of higher fuel costs. Reports indicate that at least one U.S. airline has faced severe financial strain, with rising operational costs contributing to insolvency risks in a highly competitive market.

Oil markets remain volatile as traders react to developments in the Middle East, particularly around key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Temporary price dips have been quickly reversed by renewed concerns over supply disruption.

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Energy analysts say even short-term disruptions can have lasting effects on consumer prices, especially in sectors like aviation where fuel is a major operating cost. This has contributed to uncertainty across both domestic travel and international freight pricing.

Why this matters

The economic consequences of the Iran conflict are increasingly intersecting with domestic politics in the United States, turning energy prices into a central issue ahead of the midterm elections.

With a majority of Americans reporting financial strain from rising fuel and travel costs, public perception of the administration’s handling of the crisis could play a decisive role in voter behavior.

For President Trump and Republican lawmakers, the challenge lies in balancing foreign policy objectives with domestic economic stability. If fuel and airfare prices remain high through the election season, analysts warn that voter dissatisfaction could reshape congressional outcomes and alter the balance of power in Washington.