Tucker Carlson reached his highest odds yet on prediction markets Friday, climbing to 7 percent to win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after he floated the idea of jumping into the race.
Polymarket, the largest election betting platform, showed the former Fox News host at 7 percent, up sharply in recent days.
The movement came as traders reacted to Carlson’s latest comments during an interview in which he discussed the burdens of the presidency and joked about running.
In the conversation, Carlson said he did not think he would be good at the job because presidents face tight limits on what they can do, especially on foreign policy.
Carlson teases his 2028 candidature
He pointed to influence from Israel and other interests as major constraints. Yet he added that he would run for almost any office, including “emperor of the Roman Empire,” if it meant another chance to debate Sen. Ted Cruz on camera.
The remark lit up social media and pushed traders to buy more shares tied to his candidacy. Carlson has not launched any formal campaign and has previously laughed aside questions about running.
Still, his sharp criticism of the ongoing U.S. involvement in the Iran conflict has kept him in the spotlight among voters who want a stronger America First voice.
Current polling and betting markets still point to a different picture. Vice President JD Vance leads with around 39 percent on Polymarket.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio sits in second at about 21 percent. Both men are senior figures in the present administration and have spent months cultivating donor networks and campaign infrastructure.
Carlson’s influence has come through his podcast and public appearances, not through traditional politics.
Supporters, among them former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, see him as someone who can speak directly to working-class conservatives and challenge party orthodoxy on wars and immigration.
Critics inside the GOP call him unreliable on foreign policy and say his views have drifted too far from mainstream Republican thinking.
The 2028 race remains wide open for Republicans, considering President Trump cannot run again after serving his second term.
That has created a scramble among potential candidates, including several governors and senators who have stayed mostly quiet so far.
A handful of online polls have shown him drawing double-digit support in early hypothetical matchups, though those surveys carry limited weight this far out.
Carlson’s fallout with President Trump over the Iran war
Carlson has used his platform in recent months to question U.S. involvement overseas, especially the conflict with Iran.
Those comments created friction with some Trump allies and Trump himself, but additionally boosted his standing with isolationist-leaning voters.
President Trump recently described Carlson as a low-IQ individual who is not the best at what he does.
In March, he told one interviewer he had “of course not” planned to run, yet his recent tone has left room for speculation.
Market volume on the Polymarket contract has topped $595 million, showing strong interest from bettors.
Traders have moved money quickly in response to small shifts in candidate comments or news coverage.
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Carlson’s jump marks the latest sign that the post-Trump era could turn into a contest between established figures and populist outsiders.
Behind the scenes, GOP strategists say the real test will come in early 2027 when candidates begin to declare, raise money, and visit early states.
Republicans enter the next cycle with a fair economy and recent policy wins, but also internal debates over spending, foreign engagements, and the party’s future direction.
Carlson’s name in the mix adds another element of uncertainty to an already fluid field.
