George Santayana once famously said, ‘those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.’ The world has already faced its two frontiers of global conflict namely, armed conflict and biological warfare.
However, unbeknownst to many Kenyans out there, the third wave of global conflict, cyber warfare is rearing its ugly head if the events of the last few days are anything to go by.
Kenya has witnessed remarkable growth in its Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector over the years, becoming a vital contributor to the nation’s economic development. However, this rapid expansion also brings forth a new set of challenges, with one of the most significant threats being systemic risks.
These risks pose a danger to Kenya’s ICT infrastructure and, if not addressed proactively, could have far-reaching consequences on the nation’s digital landscape and economic stability.
On Thursday, July 28, 2023, Kenyans woke up to one such attack after it was hit by a massive outage of most key government websites including its most popular eCitizen which currently boasts of handling 5,000 services in addition to the data of millions of its users daily.
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At the same time, the popular mobile transfer service M-Pesa was down with services such as USSD purchase of electricity tokens from KPLC unavailable for the better part of the day in what a lot of cyber experts termed as a DDoS attack.
A lot of Kenyans turned to various social media platforms to express their frustrations which eventually forced the government to issue various statements through the Ministries of Interior and ICT, assuring its citizens that their data was safe.
However, are we safe as a country, especially with our reliance on singular systems such as M-pesa, eCitizen and KPLC just to mention a few?
Systemic risks refer to “threats that have the potential to cause widespread disruptions or collapse of a system”, affecting the entire economy or a huge portion of it.
Kenya’s ICT Infrastructure
In the context of Kenya’s ICT infrastructure, systemic risks can arise from multiple sources such as: cyber threats; interconnectivity vulnerabilities; over reliance on foreign technology; regulatory and policy gaps; and natural calamities.
In November 2021, Africa’s broadband underwater internet cable provider published an article on its website underscoring this risk. According to the company, an analysis of its latest data at the time revealed that Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks had increased exponentially by 300% in 2021 compared to a similar period in 2019.
A similar spike in intrusions was witnessed in February 2020 during the height of COVID-19 lockdowns when a lot of activity was conducted online.
So, what is a DDoS attack you may wonder? This is a cyber-attack on servers and networks that takes advantage of the specific capacity limits of network resources.
The attacker remotely sends multiple requests to networks such as a government website with the aim of overwhelming the network and saturating traffic volumes. This causes the network to cease functioning, making it inaccessible to normal users as well as more vulnerable to further attacks.
Moreover, these hackers usually access the systems using a variety of techniques such as spam E-mails in a network and its effects can be crippling. According to SEACOM, Africa experienced 382,500 DDoS attacks between January and July 2021. Of these, 59% occurred in Kenya and South Africa.
Further, these two countries have invested heavily in technology therefore it’s no surprise that they bore most of the brunt. The attacks were majorly targeted at information services, and they equally formed the bulk of global attacks constituting 78% of all DDoS attacks.
Failure to address systemic risks in Kenya’s ICT infrastructure could lead to a series of detrimental consequences such as:
- Economic Impact: Disruptions in the ICT sector can have a direct impact on the economy, affecting businesses, trade, and financial stability.
- Loss of Investor Confidence: Both local and foreign investors may shy away from the Kenyan market if they perceive the ICT infrastructure as unstable or prone to systemic risks.
- Job Losses: The ICT sector has been a major job creator in Kenya. A collapse of the infrastructure could lead to significant job losses and exacerbate unemployment.
- Social Disruptions: ICT services are deeply integrated into Kenyan society. Any disruption could affect communication, access to essential services, and education.
- National Security: A compromised ICT infrastructure can pose threats to national security, potentially leading to issues with data integrity and information warfare.
According to media reports, the government has collected 20 billion shillings in fees since the launch of eCitizen a decade ago which is through a paybill by M-Pesa. Additionally, the KPLC token purchase service relies on a paybill operated by the same service provider.
Safeguarding Infrastructure
This over-reliance in unitary systems where there is an availability of other options poses a significant risk to national security and the economy with serious effects if left unaddressed.
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To safeguard Kenya’s ICT infrastructure from systemic risks, proactive measures must be taken:
- Enhanced Cybersecurity: Strengthening cybersecurity measures at both government and private sector levels is essential. This includes regular audits, employee training, and investment in advanced threat detection technologies.
- Diversification of Suppliers: Reducing dependency on single technology providers and diversifying sources for critical equipment and services can minimize supply chain disruptions.
- Robust Regulations: Developing and enforcing up-to-date and comprehensive regulations that promote stability, innovation, and security in the ICT sector.
- Disaster Preparedness: Integrating disaster preparedness and recovery plans into ICT infrastructure development can mitigate the impact of natural disasters.
- Public-Private Partnerships: Collaborations between the government and private sector can pool resources and expertise to address systemic risks effectively.
The writer, Francis Mwaura Muroki, is an Advocate and Counselling Psychologist.
