Kenyans remain deeply divided on the political future of Raila Odinga, with no clear consensus on whether the former Prime Minister will back President William Ruto, return to the opposition, or exit politics altogether, a new survey by TIFA shows.
The findings highlight what TIFA describes as Kenya’s “partisan fluidity,” reflecting uncertainty over both Raila’s next move and the broader shape of the 2027 elections.
“The divided opinion shows that Raila’s political brand is at a crossroads — long defined as the face of the opposition, his future role is now uncertain and lacks clarity,” read the survey in part.
23% of Kenyans Want Raila to Rejoin Opposition and Run for Presidency — TIFA Survey
Only one-third of Kenyans expect Odinga to support Ruto’s re-election bid, though the remaining two-thirds are very divided as to what his position will be – between contesting himself, supporting another candidate, or retreating to private/non-political life.
The same minority also expect the opposition to be united by the time the 2027 elections arrive, though views on this vary between supporters and opponents of the Broad-Based Government (BBG).
According to the poll, 32 percent of Kenyans expect Raila to support Ruto’s re-election in 2027.
However, 23 percent believe he will rejoin the opposition and mount another presidential bid, while 17 percent think he will back a different opposition candidate.
Another 14 percent expect him to retire from active politics and take no part in the elections.
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A Third of Kenyans Believe Raila Will Join Opposition
Almost twice as many BBG supporters as opponents expect Raila to back President Ruto’s re-election (46% vs. 28%).
Still, more than one-third of all Kenyans believe Raila will return to the opposition, whether by contesting the presidency himself (22%) or supporting another candidate against Ruto (17%), making a total of 39 percent.
Even among BBG supporters, about one-quarter expect Raila to abandon the current arrangement and rejoin the opposition, whether he contests or not (11% + 15% = 26%).
On the other hand, nearly half of BBG opponents (46%) believe Raila will be back in the opposition by 2027, either as a candidate (20%) or by backing another contender (26%).
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Broad Based Govt Remaining Intact
As of now, Kenyans’ expectations are almost evenly divided on the likelihood of opposition unity in the 2027 elections.
The survey, however, did not distinguish between supporting a single presidential candidate and avoiding multiple candidates in parliamentary and county races.
Meanwhile, 35% of Broad-Based Government opponents — compared to 26% of its supporters — believe it is “very likely” the opposition will remain united.
On the other hand, 37% of BBG supporters say such unity is “not very likely,” against 25% of opponents.
Across the country, support for the BBG is highest in Northern Kenya at 61 percent, followed by President Ruto’s home region of Central Rift at 45 percent.
It is lowest in Mt. Kenya and Lower Eastern, at 11 percent and 17 percent respectively.
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