How the Opposition Can Defeat Ruto in 2027

The opposition team that will face President William Ruto in the 2027 general election is gradually taking shape. Former Deputy President (DP) Rigathi Gachagua, PLP leader Martha Karua and Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka are among the top politicians who have given hints of working together. 

Other top leaders include former Interior Cabinet Secretary (CS) Fred Matiang’i, DAP-K party leader Eugene Wamalwa, former Public Service CS Justin Muturi and former Agriculture CS Mithika Linturi.

Speaking to The Kenya Times, Political Analyst, Dr Luchetu Likaka said Matiangi’s entry into the opposition marks a significant moment in Kenya’s political realignment ahead of the 2027 general elections.

He stated that Ruto’s administration has come under increasing public scrutiny, and the broad-based opposition signals a calculated effort to exploit these weaknesses.

Likaka explained that the opposition must move beyond symbolic gestures and build a compelling narrative anchored in economic justice, accountability, and inclusive governance to capture power in 2027.

One of the strategies he advised the team to use is highlighting Ruto’s broken promises and demonstrating how the bottom-up economic model has failed to uplift the masses.

Additionally, he said the opposition can mobilize disenfranchised youth, urban voters, and swing counties-particularly those impacted by rising poverty and unemployment.

“The return of technocrats like Fred Matiang’i adds administrative experience and institutional memory that could be instrumental in crafting a policy-driven campaign,” he said.

He emphasized that the whole team must be united and front one candidate to unseat President Ruto.

Likaka advised the opposition to avoid the perennial trap of fragmentation, which has historically handed victory to better-organized incumbents.

He also asked the team to handle their internal and personality differences with care to avoid falling apart.

“Rallying behind a single presidential candidate early enough will give the movement coherence and clarity of purpose,” Likaka said.

“The team must also remain vigilant against internal rivalry and personality clashes, especially given the complex mix of interests and ambitions involved.”

Ruto Still a Political Force

Likaka acknowledged that Ruto remains a formidable political force with state machinery and grassroots networks at his disposal.

However, he said the rise of a well-organized and message-driven opposition poses a real challenge to his re-election.

“The outcome of the 2027 elections will hinge on how effectively this opposition capitalizes on public discontent, manages internal dynamics, and communicates a credible alternative vision for Kenya’s future,” he said.

Also Read: How Raila Is Using Gachagua’s Tactics After Deal with Ruto 

Raila Joining Opposition

The opposition now leaves former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi as the top leaders currently working with Ruto.

However, a section of Raila’s allies still firmly oppose the working relationship with Ruto.

This also raises the question of whether Ruto can be re-elected if Raila joins the opposition.

Likaka said the possible formal entry of Raila into the opposition bloc would be a game-changer.

He added that Raila remains a political titan with a loyal base in Nyanza, Western, and coastal Kenya.

“His inclusion would significantly bolster the coalition’s national reach and could galvanize broader support across civil society, diaspora communities, and donor circles,” Likaka said.

However, Likaka said Raila’s entry could also trigger debates around leadership succession and generational change.

He explained that the team can benefit from Raila’s long-standing influence and attract new voters if he supports one of the leaders.

“If Raila takes on a kingmaker or statesman role rather than seeking the presidency himself, the alliance could strike a balance between legacy and renewal,” Likaka said.

Also Read: Who Needs the Other More: Raila or Ruto?

Why Ruto’s Govt Lost Popularity

The analyst adds the Kenya Kwanza government has struggled to maintain the goodwill it enjoyed during the 2022 elections.

He mentioned that the soaring cost of living, driven by high fuel and food prices, has caused widespread disillusionment, particularly among the “hustler” base that once championed Ruto’s candidacy.

Further, Likaka said the administration’s aggressive taxation agenda has strained household incomes, drawing criticism across social and economic classes.

“These economic pressures, coupled with a growing perception that Ruto’s government is elitist and out of touch with ordinary citizens, have created fertile ground for an opposition resurgence,” Likaka explained.

Likaka said Ruto’s administration has also faced criticism for perceived misgovernance and politicization of public appointments.

He stated that the consolidation of power within a narrow circle of allies and the marginalization of dissenting voices within Ruto’s coalition risk eroding the inclusive appeal he once cultivated.

“These political missteps, when viewed alongside growing intra-coalition tensions and governance fatigue, create a unique opportunity for a credible and unified opposition to position itself as a viable alternative,” he said.

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