Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga said he will reveal his next political move after his defeat in the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship race. He can choose to work with President William Ruto, align with former Deputy President (DP) Rigathi Gachagua, revive the Azimio Coalition, or even pursue the presidency independently.
Raila is currently holding consultations and has several options ahead of the 2027 general election.
President Ruto stated that there would be extensive consultations across the political divide moving forward.
Similarly, Gachagua declared that he is willing to support Raila for the presidency if Raila parts ways with Ruto.
This raises the question: who needs the other more, Ruto or Raila?
Can Ruto secure his re-election without the ODM party, and does Raila have the strength to unseat him?
Speaking to The Kenya Times, experts analyzed the factors at play, highlighting the advantages and challenges both leaders face as they navigate their political futures.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo said the 2027 will be an election with higher stakes, stack choices, and improbable odds, making it historically consequential.
Bigambo stated that both Raila and Ruto have everything at stake in the 2027 elections, as it could be their final run in active politics.
“It is likely to be Raila’s last elective exercise in politics. For Ruto, it will be his last elective election as a candidate if he wins. It is, therefore, an election that means everything to the two men,” he said.
Ruto Needs Raila More
He explained that President Ruto needs Raila more to secure a second term.
Bigambo stated that Raila holds the president’s fate, as he can either support his re-election or turn him into a one-term leader.
“For Ruto, his winning is inclined to working with Raila. Raila has a choice to stick with Ruto and help him win or sink him by walking away. This makes it clear that Ruto needs Raila more than the other way round,” Bigambo said.
Public Policy Analyst Raphael Obonyo also stated that President Ruto needs Raila to defend his seat in 2027.
“The person with instruments of power will always be the most in need to defend them,” Obonyo said.
Also Read: Ruto Speaks on Opposition Forming Grand Coalition to Send Him Home
Political analyst Maimuna Mwidau made similar comments while referring to the close competition between the two in the 2022 elections.
She noted that the rise of Gen Z in politics and Gachagua’s exit have significantly shifted the political landscape.
Given these dynamics, Mwidau concluded that Ruto needs Raila’s support more if he hopes to secure a second term.
“In my opinion, Ruto needs Raila the most so that he can finish the race of a 10-year constitutional term as a President rather than make history of being a one-term President,” Mwidau said.
Also Read: Karua Gives Condition of Working with Raila in 2027
Broad-Based Govt
According to Mwidau, Raila also needs Ruto in the broad-based government.
She pointed out that ODM holds a majority in the National Assembly, which could significantly boost Ruto’s chances of securing a second term.
“Raila needs Ruto so that they can together a broad based govt taking into consideration that ODM has a majority in the house and can easily boost the chances of Ruto making his second term,” she said.
ODM Can’t Fill Gachagua’s Gap
However, she noted that ODM alone cannot compensate for the gap left by Gachagua’s exit.
Mwidau emphasized that the entire Azimio coalition must unite with Raila and Kenya Kwanza to build a strong and winning coalition
“In sum, they both need each other to meet their own interests and agendas,” she said.
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